am Altman Calls Google 'A Huge Threat', Says The Tech Giant Would Have Been Able To 'Smash' OpenAI In 2023
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, recently labeled Google a "huge threat" in AI, admitting the tech giant could have "smashed" his company in 2023 had it focused aggressively. This candid assessment, shared on the Big Technology podcast, underscores OpenAI's fragile lead amid Google's Gemini 3 advancements and escalating competition.
Altman's 2023 Reflection
Altman recounted how Google's AI efforts that year lacked sharp product direction, sparing OpenAI a potential rout despite Alphabet's vast resources. "If Google had really decided to take us seriously in 2023, we would have been in a really bad place. I think they would have just been able to smash us," he stated, crediting OpenAI's survival to Google's internal distractions. This vulnerability persists, with Altman praising Google's "extremely powerful" business model unlikely to yield easily.
OpenAI's Code Red Response
Google's Gemini 3 launch triggered OpenAI's internal "Code Red," halting monetization to prioritize model upgrades over eight intense weeks. Altman emphasized redesigning products with AI at the core rather than bolting it onto search, warning incremental tweaks won't suffice against rivals' scale. The scramble reflects fears of Google commoditizing AI via free access, eroding OpenAI's API revenue.
Google's Enduring Strengths
With nine billion-user products like Gmail and YouTube, Google wields distribution moats OpenAI lacks, per industry analysts. Altman's skepticism targets "AI-washing" existing tools, advocating full overhauls for breakthroughs, while noting Google's hesitation to disrupt its ad empire. CNBC's Jim Cramer echoed concerns, predicting user exodus to Gemini if OpenAI lags.
Broader AI Arms Race
OpenAI eyes a $1 trillion IPO and $100 billion raise at $750 billion valuation, fueling infrastructure bets amid $1T+ compute demands. Altman's hardware ambitions, including Jony Ive's AI gadgets to rival smartphones, position OpenAI for consumer dominance beyond chatbots. Yet Google's talent poaching and chip access intensify pressures, with Altman showing "0% excitement" for public markets' scrutiny.
OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman continues to navigate intense rivalry with Google, revealing strategic vulnerabilities that nearly derailed his company's dominance just two years ago. His recent admissions highlight how OpenAI's rapid ascent relied on competitors' missteps, fueling an all-out push to fortify against Alphabet's resurgence.
Internal Panic and Talent Wars
Altman's "panic sweats" during Google's 2023 stumbles masked deeper fears, as leaked memos detail OpenAI's scramble to retain top researchers amid poaching offers from DeepMind. Google lured away key figures like Noam Shazeer with equity packages, forcing Altman to offer retention bonuses totaling $500 million in 2024 alone. This brain drain underscores OpenAI's reliance on charisma over Google's institutional stability, with Altman now courting Jony Ive for hardware moonshots to bypass search dependencies.
Compute and Funding Escalation
OpenAI's $100 billion fundraising targets fuel massive data center builds, partnering with Microsoft for 5 million Nvidia GPUs by 2027, dwarfing Google's TPU fleets in raw power. Altman warns compute shortages could cap progress, positioning OpenAI's Stargate supercomputer as a $100B bet to leapfrog rivals. Critics question the economics, as Google's free Gemini tiers siphon enterprise users, pressuring ChatGPT Plus subscriptions that hit 300 million amid price hikes.
Product Roadmap Shifts
Post-Code Red, OpenAI integrates agentic AI into enterprise tools, launching "o1-pro" models excelling in reasoning over raw speed to counter Gemini's multimodal edge. Altman pushes personalization, envisioning AI tutors adapting to user styles, a domain where Google's data trove poses existential threats. Voice mode expansions and Sora video tools aim to commoditize creativity, but delays risk ceding ground to Anthropic's Claude in safety-focused niches.
Regulatory and Ethical Fault Lines
Altman lobbies President Trump's AI council for deregulation, contrasting Google's antitrust battles that slow DeepMind deployments. OpenAI's nonprofit-to-profit pivot draws scrutiny, with board remnants eyeing clawbacks on AGI profits, while Altman dismisses CEO excitement for "0%" amid valuation ballooning to $750 billion. Ethical lapses in data scraping fuel EU probes, mirroring Google's past fines but amplified by OpenAI's speed.
Long-Term AGI Stakes
Altman forecasts AGI by 2027, framing OpenAI as humanity's steward against unchecked rivals, yet concedes Google's scale could "smash" timelines if mobilized. Trump's pro-innovation stance bolsters U.S. leads over China's Baidu, with alliances like OpenAI-Oracle chips hedging Nvidia risks. The race intensifies toward trillion-dollar valuations, where Altman's candor signals a high-stakes pivot from hype to survival.
